Measuring the impact of foreign trade on some macroeconomic variables in Iraq for the period 2004-2023

Abstract

The research aims to shed light on the extent of the effectiveness of foreign trade on some macroeconomic variables in Iraq during the period (2004-2023). In order to achieve this goal, the research relied on the deductive method based on the descriptive theoretical method based on economic theory, as well as the quantitative method by using the autoregressive model of lagged distributed lags (ARDL) to measure the impact of foreign trade on some macroeconomic indicators. In light of this, it was concluded that foreign trade has an effective role in influencing some economic indicators during the study period. It was found that the highest percentage of effectiveness in the changes that occur in public spending comes from the value of trade openness, where its value in the short term amounted to 66% of the total impact, followed by the effectiveness of total exports (36%), and then the effectiveness of total imports (25%). On the other hand, it was found that the highest percentage of effectiveness in the changes that occur in domestic investment comes from the value of total exports, which amounted to 86% of the total impact, followed by the effectiveness of total imports and trade openness, where their effectiveness in domestic investment in the short term amounted to (20%) of the total impact. On the basis of this, the study concluded by presenting a set of recommendations aimed at diversifying Iraqi oil and non-oil exports and paying attention to the productive sectors in order to reduce dependence on imports, especially consumer products, in order to overcome the issues plaguing the Iraqi economy and achieve real growth rates and sustainable development.