Measuring and analyzing the impact of some macroeconomic variables on foreign trade of the Maghreb countries (2000-2022)

Abstract

The foreign trade sector plays an important role in the economic development process, especially in developing countries. The development of Egyptian foreign trade is closely linked to economic variables, as it helps achieve local market balances and increases national income in the event of an increase in the percentage of exports and a decrease in the percentage of imports. The research aims to identify the foreign trade of the Maghreb countries; analyze the relative relationship between foreign trade and macroeconomic variables for the period (2000-2022), and analyze the estimation results according to the standard models used for the impact of some macroeconomic variables on foreign trade of the Maghreb countries for the research period. The research problem is summarized in the inflexibility of commodity production and the commodity production system of the Maghreb countries and the dependence of their local economies on a single commodity for a long period of time, which necessitates taking into account the macroeconomic variables and their effects on foreign trade and the extent of dependence on the countries of the outside world for those countries, which necessitates the necessity of commodity diversification for those countries to get rid of the one-sided economy; The research hypothesis is embodied in the existence of an impact of macroeconomic variables on foreign trade of the Maghreb countries for the research period. The analytical-experimental (standard) method was relied upon in the theoretical and analytical aspects of the research, in addition to the standard quantitative method in analyzing the estimation results of the standard model used in the research. It ended with a discussion of the standard results for the countries under study, and the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which are: weak flexibility of the exchange rate, due to the weakness of the national production apparatus, which results in an increase in the general level of prices as a result of the devaluation of the national currency. The research reached a set of proposals, the most important of which are: paying attention to the basic economic sectors such as agriculture, industry, tourism and other sectors, modernizing them and introducing the latest technology to them, adopting a trade policy aimed at protecting the local product and enhancing its role to enable it to compete.